July 2026 smokes the 1.5° C Paris-aligned benchmark!

July 2026 was the 2^nd warmest July on record and finished with an average global temperature of 1.56° +/- 0.09° C above the 1850 – 1900 average – trailing only 2023 and tied with 2024.

With a strengthening El Niño already showing a +2.7° C increase, forecasts suggest it will peak at 4.0° C.

With July being so hot, combined with the El Niño projections, Berkley Earth now gives a 69% chance 2026 will be the hottest year on record.

However, holding the crown will be hard, as 2027 is expected to be even hotter.

We’ve worked hard over the past 100 years to warm this place up.

If we want to, we can work equally hard to cool it down.